Two weeks ago it was the 50th anniversary of The Rumble in the Jungle, and all the bouquets laid at the feet of that classic heavyweight championship boxing match between Muhammad Ali and George Foreman made me think – among other things – at this weekend’s heavyweight championship. fight at UFC 309.
What is the link? This is because lowered expectations do not always predict reality.
Ali’s upset with Foreman is remembered today as one of the greatest moments in the fight game. Yet going into the 1974 fight, a massacre was almost universally expected from “Big George”, the muscular, destructive and undefeated 25-year-old champion. Ali was 3 1/2 years removed from his championship run and was 32 years old. While it still floated like a butterfly, it was a slow, less elusive floater that seemed destined to be crushed by one of Foreman’s mace fists.
Bill Caplan, public relations manager for the Boxing Hall of Fame, who worked the event, said: “People were praying before the fight that Ali wouldn’t be killed. »
And then Ali came out and shocked every single one of these people.
Now, no one is suggesting that Saturday’s UFC 309 main event between the champion Jon Jones and former champion Stipe Miocic (ESPN+ PPV, 10 p.m. ET) is comparable in scale to one of the most iconic sporting events of the last half-century. But where the two fights align is that this weekend’s fight at New York’s Madison Square Garden also has its skeptics, lots of them.
Miocic is 42 years old and hasn’t fought since March 2021, when Francis Ngannou knocked him out to win the UFC title. And since then, the heavyweight division has been in flux. Ngannou left in 2022 to pursue his professional boxing dream, and when he returned to MMA this year, it was in the PFL. To fill the void in the UFC, Jones moved up from light heavyweight, where he dominated for a decade, and in March 2023, he won the vacant title in his heavyweight debut against Ciryl Gane. But that was more than a year and a half ago, and the champion has been inactive – partly due to injury – ever since.
The heavyweight to watch all this time has been Tom Aspinall. Since we last saw Miocic, Aspinall has won five fights, all by finish, all in the first round. And yet, on Saturday, the Briton will simply sit and watch. In his possession will be a UFC interim title belt, a trinket whose sole purpose is to set up a champion versus champion unification fight. It is the fight that will truly settle the issues in the heavyweight division, but for now the focus is on legacy.
What the UFC 309 main event will deliver is a monumental dose of history. Jones is the greatest MMA fighter of all time in any weight class. Miocic is the most accomplished UFC heavyweight of all time, an unquestionable status he earned by making a record three consecutive title defenses. Three may not seem like a big number, but none of the heavyweight luminaries of the past have reached it – neither Ngannou nor Cain Velasquez, Brock Lesnar Or Randy Couture.
The ingredients are therefore there for a Rumble type shock. Will Miocic be able to dust off his old form and reclaim the title that once belonged to him? Or will this be another display of supremacy to add to Jones’ glorious resume? This is the top news of the weekend, but there are others. Here are five questions UFC 309 needs to answer.
1. Does it matter that this main event didn’t happen five years ago?
Heavyweight Championship: Jon Jones (c) vs. Stipe Miocic
Imagine if Jones and Miocic met in, say, the summer of 2019. Miocic had just secured his second heavyweight reign by knocking out Daniel Cormier. Jones was in the midst of his second run as light heavyweight champion, having already defended 10 titles. Both men were active and at the top of their game. It would have been a real superfight.
This is of course not today’s reality, but the heavyweight division is one that allows aging fighters to discover a fountain of youth. Couture won the UFC title at age 44 and Cormier held it at age 40. Miocic was just a few months old, just 39 years old the night he lost the title to Ngannou. So while a title match like Saturday’s, between a 37-year-old champion and a 42-year-old challenger, wouldn’t work at flyweight, it can work at heavyweight. This division is governed by the enduring attributes of power and toughness, where speed matters, but its reduction can be compensated for.
2. Are we going to waltz again since your dance partner stood you up?
Light: Charles Oliveira against. Michael Chandler 2
This rematch of a 2021 fight that ended in a knockout of Oliveira is the only other star-on-star fight. The appeal might be diminished because we’ve already seen this match play out decisively. Yet if you’ve seen Oliveira-Chandler 1, you’ve witnessed a riveting back-and-forth for the vacant lightweight title.
What are the issues this time? It is not clear, especially for Oliveira, as champion Islam Makhachev appears to be lined up to then defend against Arman Tsarukyanwho was last seen defeating Oliveira in April.
A challenge for Chandler? Money, a lot of it. If he loses to Oliveira, he will be able to say goodbye to the fight he spent two years fighting for. If Conor McGregor returns, he won’t want to do so against an opponent who has suffered four defeats in his last five fights. This makes this a high-risk roll of the dice for Chandler.
3. Is there reason to be optimistic that we will see a real fight?
Average weight: Bo Nickal against. Paul Craig
This fight will likely be a blowout – ESPN BET bettors certainly expect that to be the case, installing Nickal as a -1300 betting favorite. But there is one area of intrigue, and that area lies on the carpet. Just six fights into his MMA career, Nickal is working to round out his game, but his choice remains the stifling wrestling that made him a three-time NCAA Division I national champion. Getting to the canvas has been a problem for Nickal’s past opponents, but a wrestling match would play directly into Craig’s strength, as the Scot has 13 submissions among his 17 victories.
Then again, wins of any kind have been difficult to come by lately for Craig, who has lost four of his last five. Will he be able to fight even if this one gets to his wheelhouse, or will it just be another stepping stone in Nickal’s rise in the sport?
4. Will anyone ever feel this comfortable in the Octagon?
Light: Jim Miller against. Damon Jackson
Saturday’s fight against Jackson will be Miller’s 45th fight in the UFC, extending a record he will hold for many years. The closest to him among active fighters are Clay Guide And Rafael dos Anjoswith 36 fights each, and Guida is 42, Dos Anjos is 40. They are not catching up. Miller, whose 26 wins are also a UFC record, has been fighting in the Octagon since 2008, and he has never been anything but entertaining. Why stop watching now?
5. Do all roads end in New York?
2:11
Chris Weidman earns victory over Bruno Silva, but not without controversy
Chris Weidman stops Bruno Silva in Atlantic City, but Silva complains to the referee and the replay confirms a Weidman eye poke.
Average weight: Chris Weidman against. Eryk Anders
Those unfamiliar with New York might consider UFC 309 a homecoming for Jon Jones. It’s not. He’s from the upstate village of Endicott, more than a three-hour drive from Madison Square Garden. However, this event East a homecoming for Weidman, who was born, raised and until recently lived in Baldwin, a short drive from midtown Manhattan on the Long Island Railroad. Weidman is a true local hero, a two-time NCAA Division I All-America wrestler at nearby Hofstra.
Weidman produced one of the most stunning dethrones in UFC history, knocking out Anderson Silva to end a star-studded seven-year reign. But that was 2013, and the 40-year-old has struggled over the past decade, losing seven of his last 10 fights. Weidman hasn’t said he’s retiring, but since this is a hometown fight, is there a more fitting ending?