Sinn Féin has a narrow lead in the 2024 Irish elections, an exit poll suggests. What you need to know as immigration and the cost of living weigh on Irish minds. Blogging Sole

Irish voters head to the polls for record-breaking elections

Dublin— Ireland’s opposition Sinn Féin party appeared poised to narrowly win the popular vote in Friday’s general election, according to an exit poll, but its two main political rivals, the incumbent coalition parties of Fine Gael and of Fianna Fáil, will probably have enough support. to maintain power.

The exit poll result put Sinn Féin on 21.1% of the vote, narrowly ahead of Taoiseach Simon Harris’s Irish party, Fine Gael, which received 21% of the vote, and its governing partner , Fianna Fáil, at 19.5%.

Voting began Friday for Ireland’s general election after a campaign that left the country’s three largest political parties stuck in what previous polls had suggested was a stalemate. The vote will see Irish citizens choose lawmakers to fill the 174 seats in the country’s parliament, with the winning party or parties likely to form a new government and choose Ireland’s next prime minister.

Here’s what you need to know about the general election in the Republic of Ireland.

Who is running for election in Ireland?

Outgoing Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Simon Harris, of the center-right Fine Gael party, called the election on November 8, paving the way for a three-week general election campaign.

Fine Gael or the centrist Fianna Fáil party – which has ruled Ireland together for the past four years under the current coalition – has produced every Irish prime minister since the republic gained independence from Britain there is a little over a century old. In the wake of the last general election in 2020, the two long-time rivals, whose political divisions date back to the Irish Civil War of the 1920s, came together to form the coalition.

Nationalist opposition party Sinn Féin – the Emerald Isle’s oldest political party and previously the political arm of the Irish Republican Army – is seeking to break this cycle and become part of the Irish government for the first time.

But this remains a major obstacle for Sinn Féin.

The latest exit poll suggests Sinn Féin would win around 21.1% of the vote, a share that would leave the party leading the popular vote but without a clear path to power. The remaining 40% of the vote — apart from Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael’s demands on the electorate —
should be split between independent candidates and smaller political parties, which could have considerable leverage in the horse-trading involved in building a coalition government if there is not, as polls suggest, large majority winner.

Given that the leaders of Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have publicly pledged not to form a coalition with the main opposition party, Sinn Féin is expected to exceed expectations and overtake the other two parties in terms of the number of seats won by its candidates to position themselves. the driver’s seat of the next government.

During the year 2024, more than half of the world’s population has had the opportunity to vote for new leadership. In the majority of these countries, voters decisively rejected the incumbent governments.

So if Irish voters ushered in the return of some form of Fine Gael-Fianna Fáil coalition – which is seen as the most likely scenario according to a recent poll – it would buck the global trend.

What are the stakes in the Irish elections?

A Sinn Féin victory would represent a seismic shift in the Irish political landscape. It is a party best known around the world as the former political wing of the IRA, the Irish republican terrorist group that brought decades of violence to the island and Britain during a dark period of bloodshed known as “The troubles.”

More than 3,500 people are believed to have been killed between 1969 and 1998 as militants loyal to the British government and crown waged a bitter guerrilla war against the IRA and other Irish nationalist paramilitary groups.

In the years that followed US-brokered Good Friday Peace Accords Having ended this violence in 1998, Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald sought to distance the party from its militant past, focusing instead on left-wing economic populism and, in particular, tackling the country’s long-standing housing crisis.

In the aftermath of the 2020 general election, when Sinn Féin shocked many observers by winning the lion’s share of the popular vote – but not enough seats in Parliament to secure a position in government – ​​it seemed that the strategy of McDonald’s was working.

McDonald, who succeeded the party Gerry Adams, long-time stalwart as leader of Sinn Féin in 2018, appeared to be on track to becoming the country’s first female leader.

Sinn Féin remains the party with the most serious public commitment to realizing the aspirations of Irish nationalists: a united Ireland that includes what has been, since 1921, Northern Ireland under British rule. McDonald has pledged to push for a referendum on Irish unification in the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland by 2030 if elected.

Sinn Féin currently leads the semi-autonomous, power-sharing government of Northern Ireland, so securing a victory in the republic could have huge consequences for holding this referendum, although it is not clear in what extent the central British government in London might try to obstruct. of such a vote.

Just as in the rest of Europe and the United States, immigration has dominated much of the political debate in Ireland in recent years. A wave of anti-immigration sentiment, fueled by the country’s lack of affordable housing, has swept through Ireland.

The country was shaken when far-right riotersmotivated by a partially false claim on social media suggesting an illegal immigrant had stabbed young children, brought chaos to the streets of Dublin last year.

This sentiment has eaten away at a key base of support for Sinn Féin, which is largely pro-immigration. Independent and fringe right-wing populist candidates have risen in Irish opinion polls, as they have gained seats in the Irish parliamentary elections. recent local, national And European Union elections over the past year.

Early polls suggest Sinn Féin is losing momentum as the current election campaign gets underway.

Simon Harris, the energetic 38-year-old leader of Fine Gael, has worked hard to keep Sinn Féin out of power. Ireland’s youngest prime minister took office last April and in the months since has sought to allay voters’ concerns on key issues including immigration, the housing crisis and the cost of life.

A clever social media strategy saw the Irish press dub Harris the “TikTok Taoiseach” and, under his leadership, Fine Gael gained ground with voters ahead of Friday’s election.

Ireland’s notoriously low corporate tax has led to huge investment outside the country, particularly from American companies, which is the envy of many other European countries.

Unlike its financially troubled British neighbors, the Irish government currently has a considerable budget surplus, which has left the outgoing leaders with enough resources to tempt voters with promises of electricity credits, welfare benefits and tax breaks in the months before Harris called the election.

But the advantage brought by Irish tax policy could soon face strong competition. President-elect Donald Trump has pledged to match Ireland’s corporate tax rate in the United States, a policy sweetener that could incentivize Dublin-based U.S. multinationals to resume operations and return home.

However, for the purposes of this election, the national budget surplus has undoubtedly benefited both Harris and Deputy Prime Minister Micheál Martin, the 64-year veteran leader of Fianna Fáil, as they fight for become the next leader of the country.

A Gaffe’s Last Minute Gift

Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil were handed a late gift as their campaigns drew to a close.

In the past week, Fine Gael’s lead has fallen by six points, according to an Irish Times poll, after Taoiseach Harris was approached on camera by a woman in a supermarket protesting against the that his government was not doing enough to support disability care. workers like her.

The clip, which went viral, showed Harris tensely denying the woman’s claims before awkwardly offering her a handshake and then walking away. Opponents criticize him for his insensitivity.

Whether this proves decisive in swinging the election in favor of its centrist coalition partners, or towards a historic victory for Sinn Féin, will only become clear on Saturday, when the votes are counted.