There are two things with the NFC West that we can’t figure out: which team is the best and which team has the best quarterback.
While the last month of the season will answer the first question, let’s take the time to try to find an answer to the second question which involves Kyler Murray, Matthew Stafford, Geno Smith And Brock Purdy.
In Week 14, the NFC West’s passing quartet had an average passer rating of 117.2, including two 130+ outings from Stafford and Purdy in their huge home wins over the Invoices And Bearrespectively.
Stafford’s 132.6 rating in the wild 44-42 win over Buffalo was his sixth outing with a rating above 100 and his third over 120. The same goes for Purdy after his 145.4 rating in the blowout against Chicago.
With four games remaining on the 2024 regular season schedule and two games separating first from last, let’s rank the quarters for what’s bound to be a chaotic divisional race down the stretch.
These rankings are not based on the natural talent of each quarterback or which passer I would start a franchise with. This is how I would rank them, within their respective offenses, behind their offensive line, with their collection of skill-level talent.
4. Kyler Murray
Placing Murray fourth wasn’t easy. These quarterbacks are incredibly close. This season, Murray is second in significant throw rate (4.5%) in the division. Still, his Turnover-Worthy Play rate is 3.0%, now tied for worst of the quartet.
But Murray is No. 4 for several reasons. First and foremost his recent piece. While November featured a 22-of-24, 266-yard, and one-touchdown masterpiece in a 31-6 win over the Jetshis first two games in December represented a decline in efficiency and overall production.
Murray threw for 260 yards against the Vikings but threw two critical interceptions in the 23-22 loss in Week 13. At home on Sunday, against a sea hawks EPA’s 16th-ranked defense per play allowed in non-waste time, Murray threw two more interceptions, both in the first quarter, in the 30-18 loss to Seattle, which dropped Arizona to 6- 7 this season.
I don’t like his offensive line, and for an athlete as high-strung as Murray, he’s been sacked 12 times since the start of November with a 6.8% sack rate, reasonably high for a quarterback with his ability. improvisation. Marvin Harrison Jr.. flashed splash plays as a rookie, but he didn’t dominate games, with three times as many games with fewer than 50 receiving yards (six) as those with more than 100 (two). Trey McBride has become a potential new entrant in the elite segment of the tight group, and James Conner remains criminally underestimated. But overall, Murray has the least encouraging supporting cast of any of these quarterbacks in the NFC West.
3. Brock Purdy
Placing Purdy at No. 3 is not intended to further the narrative of Purdy as a mere game manager. The sample size is now large enough. And it’s not about drafting a quarterback to hypothetically create an expansion team.
The fact is that Purdy, in San Francisco, with Kyle Shanahan, and the stud’s assortment of skills and a solid running game, is a top-tier quarterback. He does it differently from Josh Allen And Patrick Mahomes And Lamar Jackson And Joe Burrow. Purdy wins with elite anticipation, as well as precision, smart decision-making and sneaky ad-libbing skills.
Now he’s not having the ultra-efficient 2023 season when I thought he deserved legitimate MVP consideration. His BTT rate is down from 5.1% last season to 3.8% after Week 14. His play TWP rate is down slightly, from 3.2% to 2.9%. His adjusted completion rate is about two percentage points lower than in 2023 and three lower than his rookie season. These statistical reasons are the basis of Purdy’s #3 ranking here.
No Brandon Aiyuk hurts this offense. Just like a battered Trent Williams at left tackle. And, my word, the 49ers are potentially in their fourth place after the injury of Isaac Guerendo against the Bears. A season ago, San Francisco led the EPA in peak times in no-waste situations. This season, the 49ers are 14th, so Purdy and Shanahan can’t lean on the run with as much confidence. But as he demonstrated in Week 14, Purdy can still occasionally carve up a secondary. But this season, mostly due to injuries, feels different in San Francisco.
2. Geno Smith
How fun has it been to watch Smith revitalize his reputation over the past few years in Seattle? For me, it’s been great. He’s brought West Virginia’s version of himself to the Pacific Northwest, and he’s playing in a spread offense again, just like he did with Steve Slaton, Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey for the Mountaineers . I guess you weren’t expecting to read “Stedman Bailey” today.
This season, Smith has been extremely steady, which has become the norm. His BTT rate of 4.9% is the best in the division and he has taken care of the quality of football with the lowest TWP rate in the group at 2.1%. These facts alone could be enough to put him ahead of his time. CardinalsRams, counterparts of the 49ers.
Beyond his individual play in 2024, Smith has an impressive group around him. DK Metcalf remains one of the most physically imposing receivers in football. Despite having a somewhat rough year and battling injuries, Metcalf was still up over 800 yards on the season entering Week 15 with 54 receptions.
Tyler Lockett is Tyler Lockett. Ultra-stable.
Then there is Jaxon Smith-Njigbawho broke into the NFL stage during his second professional season. He leads the team with 75 receptions for 911 yards in Week 14, and he’s given Smith a go-to target out of the slot in virtually every game. Since November, JSN has totaled 523 yards on 32 receptions in five games.
And the return of the punishing right tackle Abraham Lucas breathed new life into Seattle’s offense, as expected. This coincides with the Seahawks’ current four-game winning streak, during which Smith’s pressure rate has dropped from 39% to 33.6%. Coincidentally, Smith completed 73.3% of his passes with five BTTs for just 2 TWP plays in that span. Additionally, I like the aggressive, vertical nature of offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. Smith can still really run it, and his environment in Seattle is pretty good.
1. Matthew Stafford
I promise this top spot isn’t fueled by recency bias — because Stafford cooked at a Michelin star level against the Bills. Stafford hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 10, and during that four-game stretch, he’s racked up 11 big-time throws for just one turnover-worthy play.
Puka Nacua is apparently fully healthy – although he looked to aggravate his calf against the Bills – as is Cooper Kupp. Both are borderline elite players who together have caught 83 passes over Stafford’s last six games. Essentially, for a 30-something quarterback with no freakish athleticism, Stafford’s sack rate is a respectable 5.0% since the start of November.
And we all know what a ridiculous arm Stafford has. It hasn’t dissipated at all. He always has an absolute tip. That’s been the hallmark of his game since his college career at Georgia preceded his No. 1 pick in 2009. NFL Draft. Plus, he operates in Sean McVay’s proven system and hands it to probably the most underrated guard in the league in Kyren Williamswho eclipsed 1,000 yards and has 12 touchdowns for the second straight season. In short, the Rams are balanced, and that’s always an advantage for a quarterback. After Sunday’s action in Week 14, the Rams are 15th in EPA by drop and 11th in EPA by rushing attempt in non-waste time scenarios.
Stafford – with his arm, behind what is an ascending offensive line, with a good running game, And Nacua and Kupp – is the best quarterback in the NFC West.