It’s fair to say that this one rises to the level of a blockbuster. Any time a true first-round fantasy talent is on the move, that’s it. But what does this mean for Kyle Tucker his own Fantasy value is minimal.
Of course, he changes leagues, which matters for the growing number of AL and NL-only players. Sure, he’ll be going to a place with worse stats, but that probably won’t make a difference for a hitter of Tucker’s stature. Statcast estimates he would have 127 career home runs if he played every game at Wrigley Field versus the 125 he actually has. This doesn’t seem like a problem to me.
So, rather than the headliner, it’s the downstream effects of this deal that matter most to Fantasy. To begin with, you may be wondering what happens to Pete Crow Armstronga recent grad prospect who’s really hit his stride over his last 34 games, hitting .292 (35-for-120) with five homers, four stolen bases and an .801 OPS (and frankly, those numbers are an understatement his base stealing prowess). In theory, acquiring Tucker moves him out of the outfield.
But I wouldn’t worry about it. THE Yankees were also in the running for Tucker, with Cody Bellinger being offered as a fallback option, and seeing how perfect he would be at Yankee Stadium, it’s almost a fait accompli that he ends up there.
Speaking of perfect fits, let’s talk about the players Astros come back in this agreement, namely Isaac Paredes. You may remember that we lamented his acquisition by the Cubs at the trade deadline, believing that the move from Tropicana Field to Wrigley Field would essentially lower his value, and indeed, he ended up hitting .223 with a .633 OPS for his new team. . He had a home run rate of one per 71 plate appearances for the Cubs, compared to one per 21 plate appearances during his 2 1/2 years with the Cubs. Rays.
via FanGraphs
The reason for this dip is that Paredes’ entire offensive approach involves getting the ball over the shallowest part of the left field fence. As you can see from the spray chart above, he has a real talent for this, allowing him to make himself look like a power hitter even though his exit velocity readings are among the worst in all of baseball. This works well in a venue only 315 feet from the line, as Tropicana Field was, but the left field foul pole at Wrigley Field is 355 feet from home plate.
What about where Paredes will soon set up shop, Minute Maid Park?
via Wikipedia
That’s correct. It is also 315 feet from the left field line. It’s also 362 feet in the left field gap compared to 370 for Tropicana Field. You might even say, so this is the best possible place for a hitter with Paredes’ profile, and indeed, Statcast suggests he would have hit 75 home runs over the last three years if he played there every game compared to the 70 he actually hit. This section of left field is known as the Crawford Boxes, and Alex Bregmananother third baseman whose power played beyond his exit velocities, is famous for wearing them down during his time in Houston. With Bregman expected to leave via free agency, Paredes gives the Astros a competent (and surprisingly analogous) replacement.
So who replaces Paredes for the Cubs? He’s the other big winner from this deal, the top prospect Matt Shawtheir 2023 first-round pick who made quick work of the minors. He started slowly last year, but eventually hit .318 with 18 home runs, 21 steals and a .959 OPS over his final 80 games, the last 35 of which came at Triple-A. He’ll have to get the job this spring, but I suspect that’s the Cubs’ plan at third base, making Shaw an early favorite for NL Rookie of the Year.
The Astros are obviously getting more than just Paredes in this deal, with the other pieces being right-handed. Hayden Wesneski and third base prospect Cam Smith. Neither will make an immediate Fantasy impact, but Smith, the Cubs’ first-round pick last season, has a particularly bright future, having hit .313 (36-for-115) with seven homers and a 1.004 OPS across three levels last season. He’s not particularly prone to strikeouts for as much high-quality contact as he makes and projects to hit for both average and power.
So to summarize, stock even for Tucker, who remains my fourth outfielder. Stock down for Crow-Armstrong in the short term, but I suspect a Bellinger trade will remedy that problem. Stock way up for Paredes, who drops from 22 to 13 in my third base rankings, landing between Marc Vientos And Eugénio Suárez. The stock is also up for Shaw, who will likely be drafted all over the league with a chance to provide production in five categories as a rookie.