After 2016 negotiation NFL MVP Matt Ryan At Indianapolis Colts before the 2022 season, the Atlanta Falcons had difficulty finding a suitable replacement for the next two years. Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder And Taylor Heinicke all had a chance to land the starting quarterback job, but failed to impress during their opportunities.
Atlanta thought they had finally found their starter by signing Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract last March. After all, the 36-year-old was a four-time Pro Bowler and threw for over 4,000 yards seven times in eight campaigns with the then-Washington Redskins. Minnesota Vikings from 2015 to 2022.
However, 2023 was a tough year for Cousins, who guided Minnesota to a 3-4 record before suffering a season-ending Achilles injury in a Week 8 win over Minnesota . Green Bay Packers. That didn’t deter the Falcons from investing in him, but they apparently devised a backup plan: select the 2023 Heisman Trophy runner-up. Michael Penix Jr.. Washington Huskies with eighth overall pick this year NFL Draft.
Cousins’ tenure in Atlanta got off to a less than spectacular start, as he threw just four touchdown passes and three interceptions while averaging 216 passing yards as the team split its first four games . He finally made a huge effort against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 5, breaking Ryan’s franchise record with 509 passing yards and four touchdown throws in a 36–30 overtime victory.
Two more pedestrian performances followed before Cousins again had four scoring passes in a Week 8 triumph at Tampa Bay, and he threw three touchdowns as the Falcons beat the Dallas Cowboys a week later. He produced two 300-yard outings over the next four games, but was intercepted eight times without throwing a touchdown as Atlanta lost every game.
The Falcons ended the slide in Week 15 with a 15-9 victory over the Las Vegas Raidersbut Cousins’ play was hardly impressive. He completed 11 of 17 pass attempts and finished with just 112 yards, marking the third time this year he failed to reach the 200 mark.
Atlanta evened its record at 7-7 with the victory and sits one game behind Tampa Bay (8-6) as it prepares to host the NFL’s worst game. New York Giants (2-12) Sunday. With only three games left in the regular season, the team can ill afford another disappointing performance from Cousins. Knowing this, head coach Raheem Morris opted to implement Plan B and bench the veteran in favor of Penix.
Penix, 24, began his college career at Indiana and played in 20 games in four injury-plagued seasons with the Hoosiers before being traded to Washington in December 2021. He led the Pac-12 in 2022 with 4,641 passing yards and was first in the country last year with 4,903 as he helped the team earn a berth to the CFP national championship game, which it lost to the Michigan Wolverines. 34-13.
Penix threw 67 touchdown passes and 19 interceptions in 28 games during his two-year tenure in Washington and, despite his injury history, he was too good for the Falcons to pass up when their turn came in the first round of the draft in April. The left-hander made his NFL debut in Week 7 and completed his only pass attempt for 14 yards in a 34-14 loss to the Seattle Seahawks.
He rewatched the action in Atlanta’s 38-6 loss to the Denver Broncos four weeks later, completing 2 of 4 throws for 24 yards. On Sunday, he will make his first big-league start against a Giants team that has lost nine straight but is ranked seventh in the league in pass defense, allowing 200.4 yards per game.
After receiving New York, the Falcons visit the Washington Commanders (9-5) before welcoming the Carolina Panthers (3-11) at Merceds-Benz Stadium to conclude the regular season. They own the tiebreaker with Tampa Bay, meaning they only need to make up one game to win the division title against the Buccaneers, who travel to Dallas (6-8) in week 16 before finishing with home games against the Panthers and New Orleans Saints (5-9).
According to the SportsLine projection model, the Falcons win the NFC South crown in 22.4% of its simulations. The model, which simulates each NFL game 10,000 times and is up over $7,000 for $100 players on top rated NFL Pick since its inception, says Atlanta has a 14% chance of winning, which would put its chances of overtaking the Seahawks (8-6) and Commanders for a wild card spot at 6%.
The model thinks the Falcons have a slightly better chance of succeeding with Penix under center, as opposed to the current version of Cousins. The area they are improving the most is in the playoffs, as the model says they do it 25.6% of the time with Penix and 23.8% with Cousins. Their chances of winning first Super Bowl franchise history championship
| ATLANTA | VICTORY | DIVISION | playoffs | CONFERENCE | SUPER BOWL |
| With ineffective cousins | 8.7 | 19.7% | 23.8% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| With Penix | 8.8 | 20/0% | 25.6% | 1.2% | 0.4% |
Penix will be tasked with generating offense for an Atlanta team that has scored more than 17 points just once in its last five games. That seems like a reasonable ask against New York, which has allowed at least 20 points seven times in its last eight matchups.
Rookie quarterback likely to lean heavily on second-year running back Bijan Robinson against a Giants team 31st in the NFL against the run (143.7 yards allowed). The 22-year-old is fifth in the league with 1,102 rushing yards and has reached triple digits in three of his last five outings.
The model calls for the Falcons to defeat the Giants by more than one score, but the game does not feature a Grade A pick based on simulations from Week 16 of the season. You can find these top NFL Week 16 picks on SportsLine.