Authorities are trying to determine the cause of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash in Kazakhstan on Christmas Day which killed 38 people on board, leaving 29 survivors, as well as speculation is rife that the Russian military could have played a role in the disaster.
Here’s what we know so far:
How did the plane crash?
Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243, an Embraer 190 aircraft, was flying from the Azerbaijani capital of Baku to the city of Grozny in Russia’s North Caucasus region on Wednesday when it was diverted for reasons unknown not yet completely clear.
It crashed while trying to reach another airport in Aktau in western Kazakhstan.
Cellphone footage appears to show the plane making a steep descent before hitting the ground and exploding in a fireball about three kilometers from Aktau airport.
Photos from the scene show the rear part of the plane’s fuselage still intact after the crash, lying upside down in a field.
ISSA TAZHENBAYEV / AFP via Getty Images
The airline said there were 67 people on board – 62 passengers and five crew members – and that 38 people died in the crash, but 29 of those on board survived.
Investigators recovered the two black boxes, flight data and cockpit voice recorders from the crash site.
Why did the plane change course?
There were conflicting accounts as to why the plane’s pilots hijacked the plane.
Russia’s civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, initially said it appeared the pilots had been diverted to Aktau after a bird strike. Later, Russian and Azerbaijani officials suggested the plane had been diverted due to fog or bad weather in Grozny. Then Russia also said Ukrainian drones targeting the Grozny region were a factor.
Murat Usubali/Anadolu via Getty Images
Speaking at a news conference on Wednesday, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said that while it was too early to know the cause of the crash, bad weather had forced the plane to change its planned path.
“The information provided to me is that the plane changed course between Baku and Grozny due to deteriorating weather conditions and headed towards Aktau airport, where it crashed at landing,” he said.
Dmitry Yadrov, the head of Rosaviatsia, said Friday that as the plane prepared to land in Grozny in thick fog, Ukrainian drones were targeting the city, prompting authorities to close the area to air traffic.
Yadrov said that after the captain made two unsuccessful attempts to land, he was offered other airports, but decided to fly to Aktau in Kazakhstan, crossing the Caspian Sea.
What are aviation officials and experts saying about a possible cause?
Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Russia have all opened an investigation into the causes of the accident. The Kremlin urged people should not jump to conclusions.
In a statement released Friday (Dec. 27), Azerbaijan Airlines said the plane experienced “external physical and technical interference,” but did not specify where it believed the interference came from or provide further details. She announced the suspension of flights to several Russian airports.
A U.S. official told CBS News there were preliminary indications that a Russian anti-aircraft system may have struck the plane in a region where Ukrainian and Russian forces have been exchanging drone and rocket fire for months . The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that if true, it would further highlight Russia’s recklessness in its current policies. invasion of Ukraine.
White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said Friday that U.S. officials “have seen preliminary indications that would certainly point to the possibility that this aircraft was shot down by Russian air defense systems.”
He confirmed to reporters that the United States had intelligence or information suggesting that possibility, but said Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan were currently leading the investigation and the United States would “respect that process.”
Meiramgul Kussainova/Anadolu via Getty Images
Meanwhile, independent aviation experts have cast doubt on the bird strike theory, and some have pointed to damage seen on the plane’s fuselage as evidence that it could have been the target of gunfire.
“It certainly doesn’t look like a flock of birds,” said CBS News aviation safety analyst Robert Sumwalt, a former chairman of the National Transportation Safety Board.
“Birds do not fly at the type of altitude at which the initial damage occurred on this aircraft,” Sumwalt added.
Yan Matveyev, an independent Russian military expert, noted that images of the crashed plane’s tail reveal damage consistent with shrapnel from a small surface-to-air missile, such as the Pantsyr air defense system- S1.
“It appears the tail of the plane was damaged by missile fragments,” he said.
Speaking to reporters in a Dec. 27 conference call, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov declined to comment on allegations of possible Russian involvement in the crash, saying it would be up to investigators to ‘determine the cause.
Survivors heard noises before the accident
Passengers and crew who survived the crash told Azerbaijani media that they heard loud noises in the plane as it flew over Grozny.
Flight attendant Aydan Rahimli said that after a noise, the oxygen masks were automatically released. She said she went to provide first aid to a colleague, Zulfugar Asadov, and then they heard another explosion.
Press service of the Ministry of Emergencies of Kazakhstan via AP
Asadov said the noises sounded like something hitting the plane from outside. Shortly after, he suffered a sudden injury, looking like a “deep wound, the arm was lacerated like someone had hit my arm with an axe”, he said. He denied claims by Kazakh authorities that an oxygen canister exploded inside the plane.
Two other survivors described hearing explosions before the plane crashed: Jerova Salihat told Azerbaijani television in a hospital interview that “something exploded” near her leg, and Vafa Shabanova stated that “there were two explosions in the sky, and an hour and a half hour later the plane crashed to the ground.
Chris Livesay And
contributed to this report.