Three joker games of the NFL playoffs are over and the divisional round matches for the AFC teams are officially set. THE Baltimore Ravens will travel to play the Buffalo Bills next weekend, while Kansas City Chiefs will welcome the Houston Texans.
To look into the future those divisional matchesWe asked our NFL Nation reporters to pick one thing we learned about the teams they cover during the wild-card round. (For the Chiefs, who didn’t play this week, we asked Adam Teicher for an injury update.) Seth Walder also explored how each team can win to advance to the conference championships, and we have provided the opening lines of ESPN BET.
Let’s start with the #1 seed Chiefs taking on the Texans. And check back as NFC matches become clear; We’ll also preview this conference’s two divisional matchups.
Access a match:
HOU-KC | BAL-BUF
AFC
Opening line: KC-8 (42.5)
Context of the match: The Chiefs and Texans clashed Week 16Kansas City defeating Houston 27-19. The last playoff meeting between these two franchises took place 2019 wild card roundwhen the Chiefs erased a 24-0 second-quarter deficit to beat Houston 51-31. Kansas City won the Super Bowl that season. -ESPN
Chiefs injury update: The Chiefs should have all of their starters and key players on their active roster available for the divisional round. This includes defensive tackle Chris Joneswho hasn’t played since Week 15 due to a calf strain. Run back Isiah Pacheco and offensive tackle Jawaan Taylor have also recently missed time due to injuries, but should be ready to roll. Starting cornerback Jaylen Watsonwho has been on injured reserve since breaking his ankle in Week 7 against the 49ers, also practiced and could be activated. —Adam Teicher
What we learned about the Texans in the wild-card round: After an eventful regular season, the Texans got outstanding contributions from all three phases of the defeat the Chargers. Strategist CJ Stroud threw for 282 passing yards and ran back Joe Mixon totaled 106 yards and a touchdown. Defense intercepted Justin Herbert four times, leading to the third-worst total QBR of his career as a starter (13.0). Cornerback D’Angelo Ross also blocked a punt before returning a blocked extra point for a score. — DJ Bien-Aimé
Why the Chiefs will win: Well, the main reason the Chiefs will win is because they’re playing the Texans. Houston, despite advancing to the divisional round, has not been a consistently effective offensive team since its loss. Steve Diggs (knee) in Week 8. As of Week 9, the Texans rank 27th in EPA per play on offense – including negative EPA per play on both dropbacks and designed runs against the Chargers.
Of course, the Chiefs also bring more than their fair share of strengths, starting with quarterback. Patrick Mahomes but without ending with him. Earlier this season, you could look at the Chiefs and think they were missing playmaking receivers. But today, it’s a different story: Kansas City traded for DeAndre HopkinsMarquise Brown returns from injury and Xavier Digne showed growth late in the season. Plus, it’s at least possible a tight end Travis Kelce simply saved his strength for the playoffs. Add this offense to a defense that still boasts elite talent in Jones and Trent McDuffieand Kansas City is a formidable opponent for any playoff team, let alone the Texans. -Walder
Why the Texans will win: Their pass rush. As ugly as the Texans’ offense has been for most of the season — and frankly, it wasn’t great in their win over the Chargers — their pass rush still gives them a chance. Danielle Hunter led the NFL with a 26% regular season winning rate, and he and Will Anderson Jr.. were both above 25% in the category on Saturday. (Denico Autry was at 21% and also delivered a sack.) These edge rushers against the Chiefs’ tackles represent a place where the Texans – who are deserved underdogs – will have a clear advantage over Kansas City.
The defensive background also matters. Cornerback Derek Stingley Jr.. had a great regular season and landed two picks against Los Angeles. But don’t sleep on CB Kamari Lassiterwho didn’t allow a single reception as the closest defender, according to NFL Next Gen Stats, and also had a pick. -Walder
Opening line: FBU -1 (51.5)
Context of the match: The Ravens and Bills clashed Week 4Baltimore handing Buffalo a 35-10 loss – third-worst quarterback scoring margin Josh Allenthe career of. Lamar Jackson and Allen have only faced each other once in the playoffs, and Allen holds the advantage. Buffalo beat Baltimore 17-3 in Divisional round 2020. -ESPN
What we learned about the Bills in the wild-card round: This Bills team may not have reached its peak yet. Enter the game against the Broncoscornerback Rasul Douglas said the Bills still hadn’t played their best, and the playoff-opening performance showed he might be right. Allen led Buffalo to score 31 unanswered points, and the defense held the Broncos to 2 of 9 on third down despite not forcing an out, one of the unit’s strengths. —Alaina Getzenberg
What we learned about the Ravens in the joker round: Jackson proved he could have playoff success early in the season. In winning his last three playoff openers, he recorded a total QBR above 80, completed 70% of his pass attempts and threw four touchdown passes to one interception. The challenge for Jackson was the recall. In each of the last two playoff series, he has followed up a win with a loss, producing a 44 QBR, a 56% completion rate and one touchdown to two interceptions. -Jamison Hensley
Why the Bills will win: Josh Allen. Forgive the obvious, but it’s just reality. Is it fourth and short? Allen can deliver with his legs and cannon through a defense for a conversion. Third and long? He can trigger an absurd pass like his outrageous touchdown throw has Ty Johnson in the wild card round (which actually came fourth and 1, but you get the picture). And he does all this while being the best in the NFL at limiting mistakes. He had the lowest dismissal rate (2.6%) and ranked second in turnover rate (1.2%) throughout the regular season.
And the fact that he’s playing behind an offensive line that ranked third in pass block win rate in the regular season — and allowed just two sacks against an excellent Denver defense — certainly helps. As is the support Allen receives from his running backs. No team generated more EPA on running back targets than Buffalo.
The Crows could being without a top wide receiver Zay Flowers (knee) again, and that’s certainly a point in Buffalo’s favor if that’s the case. Although Baltimore has shown it is capable of winning on the ground, the Bills defense has been better against the run in the regular season (eighth in EPA per play against designed runs) than against the pass (20th against dropbacks). . They struggled with rushing, which will be an issue Jackson will face. So the Bills will likely need a lot of points to beat Baltimore – with or without Flowers. -Walder
Why the Ravens will win: Their running attack is nearly unstoppable. Baltimore showed it wouldn’t hesitate to use Jackson’s legs in the playoffs – he ran 14 times in the Ravens’ win over the Steelers (knees excluded) – and the combination of him and the running back Derrick Henri makes life brutal on defenses. The read plays during the wild card round were incredibly effective, as Steelers defenders were forced to account for both Jackson and Henry, resulting in fewer players in the path of the true ball carrier.
However, beating the Bills will require a solid effort on both sides of the ball. Fortunately, this is no longer a problem for the Ravens. Since they moved Kyle Hamilton Returning to a primarily deep safety in Week 11, Baltimore ranks first in EPA allowed per play on defense, including the playoffs. That’s better than the Broncos, who the Bills just beat. -Walder