The road to the Super Bowl runs through Kansas City. After eliminating the Houston Texans, the Chiefs will appear in the AFC Championship Game for a seventh straight year. They are just two wins away from the greatest feat of the Super Bowl era: a three-peat. Standing in their way are the Buffalo Bills, who beat the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night, and now have a chance to dethrone the two-time defending champions.
In the NFC, the Commanders shocked the world by upsetting the Detroit Lions on Saturday night and will try to repeat the feat next weekend against the Philadelphia Eagles, who beat the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday.
Jeff Howe breaks down each of the two conference championship games ahead Athletics‘s NFL Projection Modelcreated by Austin Mock, reveals each remaining team’s chances of winning the Super Bowl.
AFC
No. 1 Kansas City Chiefs (15-2, 1-0 playoffs) vs. No. 2 Buffalo Bills (13-4, 2-0 playoffs)
The powers that be in the AFC won’t budge this season, as the Chiefs and Bills will meet in the AFC Championship Game for the second time in four years.
The Bills finalized the showdown Sunday night with a thrilling 27-25 victory over the Baltimore Ravens. Quarterback Josh Allen outplayed fellow MVP candidate Lamar Jackson, as the Bills star finished 16 of 22 for 127 yards with a few scores on the ground to help fend off Baltimore’s comeback attempt.
The Chiefs were somewhat shaky in their playoff debut, but they beat the Texans by a decisive 23-14 margin despite the visitors outscoring them in yards, time of possession, first downs and conversions on the third try. That’s because the defense (eight sacks, 14 QB hits) and special teams still carry a lot of weight, and the Chiefs are the most balanced team on the field.
The Chiefs, if you don’t know, are on a quest to become the first team in history to win three straight Super Bowls. They have hoisted the Lombardi Trophy three times since coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes lined up.
It hasn’t been a breakout season for Mahomes, who has more games with fewer than 200 passing yards (five) than more than 300 yards (three), including the divisional round. But he hasn’t made any mistakes, accounting for 13 touchdowns (including one on the ground) since his last interception two months ago.
Mahomes also has 15 touchdowns against just two interceptions (both in the loss to the Cincinnati Bengals) in six AFC Championship games. In fact, the Chiefs haven’t committed a single turnover in their last eight games. That will be a focal point against the Bills, who scored three points Sunday against the Ravens and forced multiple turnovers in 11 of 19 games this season.
Mahomes didn’t get much help. His offensive tackles have been mediocre — at least when left guard Joe Thuney isn’t moonlighting at left tackle — and his talented players have been in and out of the lineup due to injuries.
But he still has Travis Kelce, who is coming off the ninth 100-yard game of his playoff career. The 35-year-old future Pro Football Hall of Famer’s production declined significantly during the regular season, but Kelce is still going strong in the playoffs. He’s had at least 70 yards passing in 14 straight playoff games – averaging 99.1 yards per outing over that stretch – so Kelce is as automatic as it gets. He also led the league in receiving touchdowns in four of the last five playoff series.
And yet, the NFL’s modern dynasty will face one question all week: Can they stop Allen?
Allen completed 63.6 percent of his passes during the regular season for 3,731 yards, 28 touchdowns and a career-low six interceptions, and he added 531 rushing yards and a dozen scores.
Allen was 27 of 40 for 262 yards, a touchdown and an interception as the Bills beat the Chiefs 30-21 in Week 11. He added 55 yards on the ground, including a 26-yard touchdown on a fourth-and-2 pivots. It was the Chiefs’ only loss this season with Mahomes starting, and it may have been the performance that launched Allen’s MVP campaign.
The Chiefs are 6-3 in the AFC Championship in the Super Bowl era, including 4-2 with Mahomes, while the Bills are 4-3. The Chiefs are 4-2 in the playoffs against the Bills, including three straight wins in the previous four years.
• Chiefs’ chances of winning the Super Bowl: 30.5%
• Bills’ chances of winning the Super Bowl: 25.9%
Odds of winning the Super Bowl
|
Team |
Odds |
|---|---|
|
33.8% |
|
|
30.5% |
|
|
25.9% |
|
|
9.8% |
NFC
No. 2 Philadelphia Eagles (14-3, 2-0 in playoffs) vs. No. 6 Washington Commanders (12-5, 2-0 in playoffs)
The NFC North has worn the crown all season, but the NFC East is chasing the ring.
The Eagles and Commanders meet in the NFC Championship Game after splitting the regular season series, with the Commanders taking a 36-33 victory in their last meeting in Week 16 in Philadelphia. The Eagles needed a fourth-quarter comeback to beat the Commanders 26-18 in Week 11, so both games were close.
The Eagles may want an asterisk for their loss, as quarterback Jalen Hurts was knocked out early with a concussion, but their 33 points were the sixth-highest output of the season behind a strong performance from Kenny Pickett. The much bigger story was that the Eagles couldn’t win despite a 5-2 advantage in the turnover battle.
So what happens if the Eagles can’t find enough takeaways in the third installment? This may also be a moot point, as they had a slight 1-0 advantage in the takeaway in the previous win. This is a rare occasion where turnovers didn’t make the difference in either outcome.
Yet commanders will not want to test this theory further. The Eagles have forced 30 turnovers in their last 13 games, including a couple of forced fumbles during a pivotal period of the second half. they eliminated the Los Angeles Rams 28-22 in divisional round.
GO DEEPER
The Commanders are one win away from the Super Bowl. Let it marinate a little
Daniels has kept the Commanders’ offense playing at an elite level in their two playoff road victories. They scored on 11 of 16 possessions, excluding closing stretches of the halves, and punted only once. They turned it over three times – a risk-reward formula that was decidedly positive – but had no interceptions or lost fumbles. They also have a missed field goal.
Daniels’ control in all situations was remarkable. Although the rookie possesses a clutch gene that has come in handy during his winning drives this season, Daniels did an impressive job Saturday night keeping the pressure on the top-seeded Lions, leading the Commanders to score on four of their five possessions. a Detroit score. The exception was a missed field goal, so Daniels continually kept the ball moving when the Lions tried to run.
Daniels will have to be great to take the Commanders to their first Super Bowl in 33 years, and the evidence suggests he will rise to that challenge. He passed for 1,522 passing yards, 17 touchdowns and four interceptions during their seven-game winning streak, and he added 422 yards and a score on the ground. However, three of Daniels’ nine interceptions this season came against the Eagles.
Hurts and the Eagles passing attack have been pedestrian since returning from the concussion. He had 259 passing yards and two touchdowns in the two playoff victories, although he totaled 106 yards and a score as a runner. Wide receivers AJ Brown (three catches for 24 yards) and DeVonta Smith (eight catches for 76 yards) therefore did not have much impact.
But fear not, because the Eagles still have running back Saquon Barkley. The league’s best offseason addition totaled 324 rushing yards and two touchdowns in two playoff games as he hasn’t slowed down since his torrid regular season.
These teams have one playoff meeting, with Washington winning their wild-card game in 1990. The Commanders are 90-86-6 in the all-time series.
The Commanders are 5-1 in conference championships in the Super Bowl era, while the Eagles are 4-4.
• Eagles’ chances of winning the Super Bowl: 33.8%
• Commanders’ chances of winning the Super Bowl: 9.8%
(Photo by Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen: Ryan Kang/Getty Images)