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Jake Michaels, lead writer
MELBOURNE, Australia — Carlos Alcaraz couldn’t have said it better when asked to share his thoughts on the upcoming Australian Open quarter-final against Novak Djokovic.
“He’s not the right player to play in a quarter-final,” joked the world No. 3.
In any tennis tournament on the planet, this heavyweight match would be a worthy and highly anticipated finale. But at this year’s Australian Open, the two titans will face off in a quarter-final for the ages.
Here’s how each player can win the match and advance to the semi-finals:
Why Novak Djokovic will beat Carlos Alcaraz
Is it too simplistic to say that Djokovic knows how to win at Melbourne Park? Maybe. But he really does it!
Djokovic is a 10-time Australian Open champion and has a ridiculous 94-9 tournament record over his career. Take away his first three years on tour, and that number gets even scarier at 91-6. No player has won more matches than Djokovic at the Australian Open, and no player has won more matches at Rod Laver Arena, where Tuesday’s blockbuster clash will take place. There is an aura around Djokovic that is most certainly felt by his opponent every time he steps onto that court.
The head-to-head record between the two also favors Djokovic in this quarter-final. After losing to Alcaraz in two of the duo’s first three meetings, the Serbian star managed to turn the script around. He won three of the next four matches, including last summer’s famous Olympic final on clay at Roland Garros. Above all, Djokovic also prevailed every time he and Alcaraz met on hard court. These matches took place at the 2023 Cincinnati Masters and the ATP Finals later that year.
After losing sets in his first and second round matches of the tournament, Djokovic appears to have found his rhythm again. He won eight straight sets, displayed fierce ball striking and that trademark defense en route to the quarterfinals.
“I’m really happy to be able to beat both (Tomas) Machac And (Jiri) Lehecka in straight sets, it encourages me to believe that I can really win against any opponent on a good day when I feel better,” Djokovic said after his fourth-round victory. “I like the way I’m playing and the way I feel in the last two matches. I’m excited about the challenge (of Alcaraz).
Alcaraz’s serve, which was rebuilt over the past offseason with the aim of making the movement more fluid and thus regaining precision with greater regularity, also seems a little suspect. He has committed 15 double faults in four matches and only hits the first serve 62% of the time. This places him 69th in first serve percentage at this year’s tournament. If Alcaraz continues to struggle with his serve, that’s the advantage of Djokovic, the greatest returner the game has ever seen.
But perhaps the biggest reason to suggest Djokovic will defeat his younger rival and advance to the final four is the history he is playing for. Another Grand Slam title – a 25th – would break the tie he holds with Margaret Court for the most major singles triumphs in a career. And if he wants to win another major tournament, he will become the oldest man to ever win a Grand Slam trophy.
Why Carlos Alcaraz will beat Novak Djokovic
There is no shortage of factors working in Alcaraz’s favor ahead of this quarter-final. But perhaps the most obvious is its age and freshness.
At 21, Alcaraz is an extraordinarily 16 years younger than Djokovic, and those fresh young legs should stand him in good stead against the king at Melbourne Park. Additionally, Alcaraz spent significantly less time on court in the first four rounds: seven hours and 45 minutes, compared to 11 hours for Djokovic.
Djokovic may hold that stunning record at the Australian Open, but for stretches of this year’s tournament he hasn’t quite looked like the same player he once was. Perhaps you could say that his age shows up invariably. At various stages, Djokovic battled breathing problems and struggled to move around the court with his usual enthusiasm, although there were improvements in his last two matches. It almost seems wrong to say, as physical fitness and mental strength have defined his famous career, but the longer the match goes on, the more disadvantage Djokovic will be.
Alcaraz has already proven that he has the game to beat Djokovic on tennis’ biggest stages. What is worrying for Djokovic is that Alcaraz is undoubtedly improving.
The Spaniard is hitting the ball harder and more aggressively this fortnight in Melbourne than he was 12 months ago. Tournament data shows that he sacrificed about 4% of the topspin on his forehand in exchange for more speed, and that he now generates, on average, an additional 3 km/h (1.9 mph) on those shots . As a result, he has hit the most winners in the tournament and has the second highest winning percentage in terms of points played. If he can master this serve, he will be difficult to defeat.
“Facing Novak, for me it’s not going to change anything. I will approach the match the same way as in the previous matches against him,” Alcaraz said after his fourth round match against him. Jack Draper. “I know my weapons. I know that I am capable of playing good tennis against him, I am capable of beating him. That’s all I think about when I’m in front of him.
Djokovic isn’t the only one making history with a victory on Tuesday. Alcaraz is just three wins away from capturing the only Grand Slam title that has eluded him throughout his young career. If he were to win the Australian Open, he would become the ninth man in history to achieve a career Grand Slam, but at 21 years, 8 months and 19 days, he would be the youngest to achieve this feat.
Who will win
It’s tough to choose against Djokovic at the Australian Open, but it feels like we’re firmly headed to the Alcaraz – and Jannik sinner – era. It will be the match of the tournament and Alcaraz will win in five epic sets.