- The Ministry of Planning warns the external sector as under tension.
- Refunds of the debt to expand the deficit of the current account in the following budget.
- Inflation should persist during the next year from July 2025 to June 2026.
The government has projected a resurgence of inflationary trends, providing for an average inflation rate based on the IPC up to 7.5% for the 2025-26 budget, a notable increase compared to the 5% recorded during the current financial year, The news reported.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Planning warned that the external sector could be subject to pressure, because the relaxation of import restrictions and the reimbursements of the debt to come should widen the current account deficit in the upcoming budget.
The annual plan coordination committee (APCC), which should meet on June 2, 2025, should consider recommending the overall macroeconomic framework for the upcoming budget, in particular by imagining a 4.2% GDP growth rate for the next budget against 2.68% for the outgoing financial year.
These macroeconomic projections show that the stabilization mode will continue during the coming fiscal year under the tight node of the IMF.
According to government prescriptions, public investment should drop from 2.9% to 3.2%. Likewise, private investment should also drop from 9.1% of GDP to 9.8%.
“Tax and monetary policies will aim for consolidation and stability, with an expected inflation of 7.5% due to the low basic effect and the risk of current trade tensions and rationalization measures of domestic prices.
The external sector can cope with the pressure, because the relaxation of import controls and debt reimbursements are likely to expand the current account deficit. However, heavy funds, export resumption and expected external funding should damage these pressures and support external sustainability, “concedes the government.
The impact of the basic effect to maintain inflation on the lower side will disappear from the coming exercise, raising average inflation based on the IPC and located at 7.5% in 2025-2026.
This indicates that inflation will persist during the next exercise from July 2025 to June 2026 but one figure. On a monthly basis, it could be two digits in some cases.